On the way to a restaurant on the New Year's night, i ran into a pond with a fountain where two swans were "bathing" under the splashing water. They were floating on the pond such in a solid manner that, from a distance i was illusioned first, thinking that they were plastic ducks. It was an extremely difficult photo to make: i was totally dipped in mud with my New Year's clothes on to approach the vision as much as possible, the lighting was impossible with a contrast of extreme brightness and extreme darkness, the swans were always floating from here to there, I and my lens were getting soaked up by the sprays of water, and finally i was out of battery trying to make a reasonable photo.
The black swan theory or theory of black swan events is a metaphor that encapsulates the concept that the event is a surprise (to the observer) and has a major impact. After the fact, the event is rationalized by hindsight.
The theory was developed by Nassim Nicholas Taleb to explain:
1.The disproportionate role of high-impact, hard-to-predict, and rare events that are beyond the realm of normal expectations in history, science, finance and technology
2.The non-computability of the probability of the consequential rare events using scientific methods (owing to the very nature of small probabilities)
3.The psychological biases that make people individually and collectively blind to uncertainty and unaware of the massive role of the rare event in historical affairs
Unlike the earlier philosophical "black swan problem", the "black swan theory" refers only to unexpected events of large magnitude and consequence and their dominant role in history. Such events, considered extreme outliers, collectively play vastly larger roles than regular occurrences
Identifying a black swan event, based on the author's criteria:
1.The event is a surprise (to the observer).
2.The event has a major impact.
3.After its first recording, the event is rationalized by hindsight, as if it could have been expected (e.g., the relevant data were available but not accounted for).
Critiques | Translate
leo61 (0) 2012-02-02 10:51
Wetting your cloth was worth this great shot.
A wonderfull composition in B&W and the swan at the perfect position.
Great light and excellent quality and an interesting theory.
Greetings from Mannheim,minus 12 degree last night and the forecast for the weekend is minus 16.......
What keeps me alive? red wine and my Emirates flight ticket on an airbus A380 to Indonesia in april...
golus (2893) 2012-02-02 11:02
Merhaba Deniz Bey,
Çektiğiniz onca zahmete kesinlikle değmiş görünüyor. Sonuçta insan yaşamında karşısına bir kez çıkabilecek fırsatlardan birisini çok iyi değerlendirmişsiniz. Saflığın ve zerafetin simgesi olarak bilinen kuğunun güçlü ışık önündeki silüeti son derece dramatik ve etkileyici. Çok beğendim. Elinize sağlık, selamlar.
mesutilgim (73216) 2012-02-02 11:07
Sevgili Rigocan kardeşim,
Akşam akşam kültürüme kültür kattın bu güzel kare'n ve de bildilendirme notlarınla !
Umarım mübarek yılbaşı gecesinde zavallı kuğuyu sen boyamamışsındır siyah'a, teorini pekiştirmek için !
parvatibb (1115) 2012-02-02 12:41
butun cektiginiz zorluklara degmis, zor isik probleminin basarili bir sekide ustunden gelinmis
zarif ve masalsi bir kare olmus...
ps.yeni yil aksami rezervasyon yaptirmamanin ve sokak sokak dolasmanin bu kadar ise yarayacagini kim bilebilirdi...
erhan1958 (13779) 2012-02-03 0:17
zhametle çekilmiş ve bu kadar başarılı bir foto neden puan almaz anlayamıyorum.
Bütün değerleri ile çok sanatsal bir bir foto
Juzo (4284) 2012-02-03 4:35
Truly a beacon of elegance here...superb. The black swan of Flanders, this is a classic.
CLODO (26652) 2012-02-03 9:44
Absolutly amazing and a good play for the B&W!
syd1946 (18663) 2012-02-04 9:21
I am very happy you are alive in these pages! I missed your eye in the world very much. What can I say for taking such a great photos in a way to a restaurant! I love the black and white choice also and the theory in your note. A photographic explosion!
many wishes my friend,
bayno (18338) 2012-02-04 17:08
congratulations for your beautiful gallery shots, creative and never banal, this is wonderful, beautiful moment captured and a perfect light management for the theory i am too tired to think now ehehehe
have a nice sunday,
tusharkmandal (3149) 2012-02-05 9:45
Thats Hell of a task getting soaked and soiled in New Year. But for photos I can understand. The black swan theory was happily applied here in getting soaked for pic that too in new year.
Derya (919) 2012-02-06 3:32
muhteşem bir fotoğraf olmuş ,
Su damlaları, ışık hepsi muhteşem.
hele hele kuğunun gagasındaki su damlası bile o kadar net ki.. çok beğendim
lpi (4804) 2012-02-07 11:49
Magnifique composition en Noir & Blanc!
Elle est superbe cette silhouette du cygne!
Bluejeans (64243) 2012-02-08 5:32
Ola Deniz ,
Uma bela foto a preto e branco nesta fonte , gostei da silhueta do cisne , parabéns!!
Um abraço Gonçalo
NuriGiray (4) 2012-03-02 6:40
Merhaba Deniz Bey,
Zamanlama harika, iyi yakalamışsınız.
GFSSD-1 (3134) 2012-03-06 10:28
Az ışık, az leke, çok iş..
en iyi dilekler
vapours (8264) 2012-04-25 23:40
Most people think of love and happy feelings but you've taken all that away with your strong blacks. Definitely a different type of shot, and a real stand out.
amazon (12110) 2012-05-24 14:25
amanın ki ne amanın....hani yıllar yıllar evvel,daha dünyamız bir gaz bulutu iken gönderdiğin bir ters ışıkta fıskıyeler,kuşlar...fotoğrafın vardı...o geldi aklıma,
adidas5nb (2973) 2013-06-05 3:11
this is a classic picture.what a shot!take a bow!
emka (64550) 2013-11-10 4:34
I was interested in your Bruges photos (after seeing this New Year Palace of Justice), and I found this one. I was attracted by the title - I also posted the photo and the note about black swan theory, see http://beta.trekearth.com/viewphotos.php?l=7&p=1425347
easier to understand the examples than theory itself.
I try imagine you in New Year's cloth in mud approaching the black swans. But it was worth the cost of laundry, the photo is fantastic. I like the light, amazing jets of fountain and a small droplet on the beak of the bird.
WArm regrads MAlgo
- Copyright: Deniz Taskin (rigoletto) (32904)
- Genre: Places
- Medium: Black & White
- Date Taken: 2011-12-31
- Categories: Daily Life, Nature
- Camera: Canon EOS 400D, Canon 18-55 mm
- Exposure: f/5.6, 1/40 seconds
- More Photo Info: view
- Photo Version: Original Version
- Theme(s): CLODO's selection XIII [view contributor(s)]
- Date Submitted: 2012-02-02 10:38